The UK’s Spring Forecast 2026 provides an updated view of the country’s economic direction over the coming years. While the announcement did not introduce major new tax measures, the projections for growth, inflation and borrowing give businesses and households an important indication of what to expect.
To read the full blog, containing all information in the Spring Forecast, click here!
Slower growth in the short term
Economic growth in 2026 is now forecast at 1.1%, slightly lower than previously expected. This downgrade reflects softer business activity and weaker economic data towards the end of 2025.
Growth is expected to strengthen modestly in the following years:
- 2027: 1.6%
- 2028: 1.6%
- 2029–2030: around 1.5%
Overall, the forecast points to steady but moderate economic expansion, rather than a rapid recovery.
Inflation returning to target
Inflation is expected to fall further during 2026 and settle close to the Bank of England’s 2% target from 2027 onwards.
Lower wholesale energy prices and easing domestic cost pressures are expected to drive this trend. While this should make price increases more predictable, it does not mean prices will fall back to previous levels.
Labour market outlook
Unemployment is forecast to rise slightly to 5.3% in 2026 before gradually declining to around 4.1% by 2030.
For businesses, this may ease recruitment pressures in certain sectors, although skills shortages are still expected in specialised roles.
A stable but cautious outlook
Taken together, the forecast suggests the UK economy is entering a period of stability rather than acceleration.
For many organisations, this means planning for:
- moderate growth
- careful cost control
- realistic financial projections.
How Gow and Partners can help
Periods of moderate growth often reward businesses with strong financial management and clear strategic planning.
At Gow and Partners, we support businesses through services such as:
Virtual Finance Office – giving you the financial infrastructure of a larger organisation
Virtual Finance Director – strategic financial insight to guide business decisions
If you want to ensure your business remains financially resilient in a changing economic environment, our team can help.
👉 Get in touch with Gow and Partners to discuss your financial strategy.
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